Treasury Yield Curve Slope (2s10s)

The 10-year minus 2-year (and 10-year minus 3-month) Treasury spread — the classic recession bellwether. When the line falls below zero the curve is "inverted": short rates exceed long rates, which has preceded every U.S. recession in the modern era. The steepening back above zero (a "bull steepener") often marks the approach of rate cuts.